Generation Y, otherwise referred to as Millennials, encompasses those persons born between 1980-2000. They range from 15-35 years of age and currently are 80 million strong--approximately a quarter of the US population. Those who entered college in 2011 were the first group of people to have been on social media from age 13 onward. This generation has long been considered lazy and apathetic, privileged, out of touch with current events. However, there will come a time when the baby boomers will no longer make up the majority of the voting populace, a time when Millennials will become the key to winning presidential elections.
In the 2008 presidential election, a measly 58% of the voting age populace turned out to vote. In contrast, the voter turnout for the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014 saw a 85.5% voter turnout—a staggering 27.5% difference. Of the voting age populace that actually voted in the 2008 election, a quarter of the turnout was Millennials. Within their generation specifically, 47% actually voted—an impressive number in itself given the small voter turnout as a whole. Turning towards the 2012 presidential election, we saw a decline in voter turnout to only 55%. However, Millennials maintained a strong representation with 48% turning to the polls. They comprised 29.5% of the total votes in the 2012 election-- an increase of 5% from 2008. Their numbers are only increasing, as more and more of the Millennial generation become eligible to vote. They are projected to total 88.5 million in only five short years. Looking ahead to the 2020 presidential election, a conservative estimate of voter turnout would be 54% of the voting populace, or 133,667,400 people. Of this, another 48% estimate for Millennial turnout would be on the low end of the spectrum. That would clock in at 42,480,000 or 32% of the total votes in the 2020 election. The conclusion is clear enough: Millennials will become the key generation of presidential campaigns in the very-near future.
But the question remains—why is this important? What’s the big deal about Millennials becoming 1/3rd of the voters? Two words: social media. Currently the three largest platforms in the US are Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. For starters, Facebook boasts 180 million American users, which constitute 56% of our nation’s population. Given that two thirds of Millennials have accounts, it can be assumed that of the 180 million US citizens on Facebook, 29% would be Millennials. On Twitter there are over 288 million monthly active users with 500 million tweets sent per day—it’s like Angry Birds, but with information, and we’re the pigs. Instagram has approximately 90 million monthly users in the United States alone, with 300 million world-wide. With 70 million photos shared on average per day, 30% may safely be assumed to come from Americans. This means 21 million photos are shared every day in America on Instagram alone. That is a staggering amount of photographs, adding up to over 7.5 billion photos shared in just one year within the US.
All of this data leads to two undeniable conclusions. First, the Millennials will without a doubt become the prime voting populace in US presidential elections, whether you like it or not. Second, they are the most in tune with social media out of any generation yet to vote. It is already becoming obvious how much influence social media will have on the upcoming election. From advertising and surveying to mudslinging, social media will arguably hold all the power over future presidential elections in this country. It was already apparent in the 2012 elections that Twitter and Facebook played hugely important roles in candidates reaching out to Millennials. In addition, Obama is considered the most tech-savvy president to date, connecting with the American people across all forms of social media, from Google+ to Pinterest. It has become an expectation and a necessity that politicians utilize social media as their primary form of communication with their constituency.
Why should you be concerned about this, you ask? As a current college student who witnesses the countless Facebook photos, tweets, and Instagrams that are posted every weekend—I worry for the future. The Millennial candidates who wish to run, at least in this day and age, would have to have a completely clean slate. That one time you complained about a teacher in high school on Twitter? You clearly have no respect for authority—not to mention your moral apathy toward our nation’s educators—and are not fit for public office. But you deleted that, you say? Don’t worry, it’s archived somewhere, waiting to bite you in the ass. Given the current social acceptance within Millenials’ generation of what can and cannot be posted on the web for all to see, I cannot imagine anyone of that generation will be safe from social media-based muckraking in future elections.
This brings us to a unique point: What do we make of the clean-slated millennial who runs for president? I know I wouldn’t vote for them, and quite frankly I don’t believe many others of my generation would either. I couldn’t relate to someone who hasn’t made a mistake in a day in age in which everything little thing is documented on social media. “So hungover today” would show that you are a real person, not someone who was already grooming for public office at 22. There will without a doubt be a massive culture shift in regard to American political candidates, and even those outside of the United States. Mudslinging will increase exponentially as pictures and snippets of text begin to emerge during the campaigns of Millennials. Eventually these will die down, and it will become a matter of who is less bad, not who is completely clean. A middle ground will be reached where some but not all mistakes will be accepted. Ultimately it is clear that this generation, the social medialites, will soon hold power in US presidential elections and lead the masses to change, willingly or not, in political campaigns. Social media has the power to propel one candidate to victory while absolutely decimating another. Needless to say, it will be a wild ride and we’ll #bearwitness to it all.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Twitter, Instagram, Facebook